Автор: Чаунин Никита Вячеславович
N. Chaunin,
Belgorod
The Arctic Climate and Its Current Changes
Abstract: This article discusses the main features of the Arctic climate, related to its geographical position and other factors, as well as the main causes of climate change in the region. Special attention is paid to the impact of human activity on climate change. The article also highlights the issues arising from climate change, including the extinction of species, reduction in Arctic sea ice, and occurrence of natural phenomena.
Keywords: Arctic, climate, factors of climate change
The relevance of this topic lies in the fact that both the Arctic climate and global climate have experienced significant changes in recent years, leading to various global issues.
The northern regions of the Earth play a crucial role in global environmental processes and serve as indicators of natural changes on a planetary scale. These regions, especially the Arctic, have been experiencing some of the most dramatic changes, including increases in air temperature and river flow, decreases in ice cover and permafrost degradation. These changes are more pronounced in the Arctic than in other parts of the world and serve as a warning sign of the potential impact of climate change.
The Arctic is an expansive physical and geographical region that encompasses the area surrounding the North Pole and includes the outskirts of Eurasia and North America as well as the Arctic Ocean, excluding islands near the coast of Norway. The Arctic Ocean encompasses a significant portion of this region, bordered by the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The southern limit of the Arctic is defined by the tundra region, which spans approximately 27 million square kilometers. In some instances, the Arctic can also be defined by the Arctic Circle, which lies at a latitude of 66 degrees and 33 minutes south, in which case the area encompasses approximately 21 million square kilometers.
The Arctic region, located at high latitudes, plays a unique role in determining the Earth’s overall temperature pattern [4].
One of the defining characteristics of the Arctic climate is that it is formed under conditions of significantly lower solar radiation compared to other regions. This is due to the fact that, north of 70 degrees latitude, the sun remains below the horizon for extended periods during the polar night and does not reach its highest point in the sky during the polar day, which lasts for several months. As a result, the high reflectivity of snow and ice surfaces, combined with the low sun altitude in the sky, prevents the development of a typical temperature background found in other parts of the world [17].
The second characteristic of the Arctic climate is its sensitivity to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and cloud cover. Due to the high latitude, the region has a predominantly negative radiative balance, with the temperature being primarily controlled by the ability of the atmosphere to prevent heat loss to space.
The third feature of the Arctic is the presence of a geomagnetic pole near the geographic pole, which creates conditions that allow for the entry of charged particles from the sun and outer space into the atmosphere at these high latitudes [16].
Over the past 600 years, there have been at least three to four significant warming events in the Arctic, comparable in magnitude and duration to the well-known «Arctic warming» of the first half of the 20th century [15].
In a map, the Arctic Desert area now covers small areas along the coastlines of Greenland, Eurasia, and North America, as well as archipelagos and islands in the Arctic Ocean. According to researchers, the long-term average air temperature within the Arctic Circle has been increasing at a faster rate than in other regions, which is leading to a decrease in the size of natural habitats and potentially their disappearance in the future.
Since the 1970s, and especially in the last decade of the 20th century, a gradual warming trend has been observed in the Arctic region. As of today, the average annual temperature in this region is 3.5 degrees Celsius above the climatic norm (average value from 1961-1990), and the weather values in October and November have even exceeded this average by 9 degrees Celsius [6].
The Arctic warming, also known as polar amplification, is characterized by a more rapid increase in surface temperatures relative to global averages. This phenomenon is accompanied by a decreasing extent of sea ice. Rapid climate change in the Arctic takes place against the backdrop of significant interannual and long-term climate variability at high latitudes, making it challenging to identify clear trends and quantifying the impact of different natural and human factors [12].
Climate anomalies in the Arctic region are linked to atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in other areas, including Russia. This relationship has been demonstrated, for instance, in the occurrence of unusually cold winter seasons in various regions of the Northern Hemisphere in recent years [9].
The causes of current climate change continue to be a topic of discussion. At present, there are only four main recognized factors of climate change, both globally and locally. These include:
1. Anthropogenic warming factor: In recent decades, there has been a focus on human-induced changes to the atmosphere as a potential cause for the intensification of the greenhouse effect and climate warming during the latter half of the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a team of experts on climate change, concluded that human activity is linked to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and others in the atmosphere. It is likely that this increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is responsible for most global warming during that period. Carbon dioxide, in particular, plays a significant role through its greenhouse effect on the atmosphere [18].
According to academic V.M.,Kotlyakov, the concentrations of greenhouse gases and global temperatures have consistently varied in the past, as shown by the analysis of ice core samples over several centuries. During the past 100 years, the gas content in the atmosphere has significantly increased. However, recent temperature changes do not exceed the natural historical variations observed in the pre-industrial period [8].
2. Solar activity. The climate on Earth is primarily influenced by solar energy in the current astronomical conditions of the planet. Two key factors for maintaining stable climate are therefore the preservation of solar luminosity and stability of the Earth’s orbital parameters. Although neither of these factors remain absolutely constant, small variations are observed.In the early 1980s, a variation in the solar radiation flux was discovered, with an amplitude of approximately 0.1–0.2%. This variation is associated with an 11-year solar cycle. Decreases in solar radiation are linked to the formation of large sunspot groups, while increases are associated with solar flares. During periods of increased solar activity, the number and size of sunspots increase, and this may be partly responsible for the variations in solar radiation. The appearance of sunspots and prominences on the surface of the Sun can only account for approximately 50–70% of the observed variability in solar irradiance. Other factors that may contribute to this cyclical variation include changes in the Sun’s diameter [1].
3. The astrodynamic warming factor is an equally significant element in the variability of climate. From an astronomical standpoint, the amount of radiation absorbed by the earth’s surface plays a crucial role. This absorption primarily depends on the angle at which sunlight strikes the earth, which in turn is influenced by the inclination of the earth’s axis in relation to the ecliptic plane. Due to interactions between the earth and other celestial bodies such as the moon and planets, variations occur in the parameters of the earth’s orbit and axis tilt. These alterations in orbit and inclination lead to changes in conditions for solar radiation absorption. This, in turn, affects the duration of seasons and overall annual influx of solar energy into the climate system, contributing to climate variability. Astrodynamic factors are essential for understanding the various radiation components that determine the overall climate of a planet. Variations in the Earth’s orbit and axial tilt can lead to not only radiation changes, but also dynamic perturbations throughout the planetary system. The Earth is constantly subject to variable and repetitive gravitational forces from other bodies in the solar system, causing its movement to be constantly changing. As a result, Earth’s conditions never remain static, and these perturbations can vary in strength and timescale, ranging from days to millennia. The magnitude of these perturbations depends on the mass and distance of the influencing bodies. The nearest bodies, such as the moon, Venus, and Mars, have the strongest effect on Earth’s movement, while the more distant Saturn has a weaker influence [7].
4. Resonances in the Solar and Climate Systems as a Contributing Factor to Warming The climate system, in all of its aspects, can be described as a complex, oscillatory system with numerous, nonlinear interactions. Over millions of years, this climate oscillatory system has gone through several stages of development. Regardless of their specific nature, nonlinear oscillating systems, during their dynamic evolution, have a tendency to enter a particular synchronous mode of operation.According to the theory of vibration, a set of isolated objects oscillating at different frequencies will, even in the presence of very weak connections, enter a state of motion in which the frequencies of the objects become equal or related in a rational manner. This synchronization process also establishes certain phase relationships between oscillations, in addition to commensurability of frequencies. The comparability of frequencies is a common occurrence in the actual solar system. The hypothesis of a resonant structure for the solar system forms part of the broader theory of the behaviour of complex oscillating systems. Resonances may also occur in variations in the characteristics of the climatic system. In such cases, they can form the basis for rhythms with varying durations and frequencies within the climate system as well as cause long-term alterations in the parameters of the climatic system [10].
At the heart of many pressing environmental challenges in the Russian Arctic lies the issue of irresponsible management of the region’s natural environment. This includes economic development that does not take into account the ecological carrying capacity of the area. The lack of adequate measures to rehabilitate the environment is a significant concern. Limited economic use of natural resources on the territory and conflicts between different approaches to environmental management also contribute to these issues. Among the geophysical challenges, three key problems stand out: pollution of the environment, preservation of terrestrial resources of the biosphere, and deterioration and disturbance of grasslands, hunting grounds, and breeding and feeding areas of rivers [11].
The melting of Arctic sea ice and the rapid reduction in snow cover, as predicted by numerous scientists, will exacerbate the process of global warming. This may lead to the flooding of major coastal cities and other disastrous consequences.
According to recent research, the air temperature in the Arctic has risen to unprecedented levels over the last 115 years. Scientists forecast that by 2030, Arctic ice may start to vanish entirely during the summer months, and by 2070, Earth may lose its northern polar ice cap entirely. This could threaten not only the continued reduction of the area covered by permafrost, which affects the stability of gas and oil pipelines, cities, roads, railways, and other technical structures, but it could also lead to an increase in sea levels due to the melting of glaciers and the effects of climate change caused by the emission of methane into the atmosphere [2].
These factors contribute to the reduction of the atmospheric static stability and the increase of convection during periods of warming, resulting in an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events, particularly in high latitudes where the risks are highest. A more moisture-rich atmosphere increases the risk of the formation of intense atmospheric vortices, including powerful polar cyclones [5]. These cyclones play a significant role in the Arctic climate system and influence regional weather patterns, climate variability, and the transport of heat and moisture between middle and high latitudes.
Regional atmospheric composition anomalies are closely linked to regional weather and climate patterns, potentially leading to environmental consequences through the formation of «ozone holes» with variations in the intensity of biologically active solar radiation. At the same time, it is possible for there to be a meridional transport of atmospheric pollutants, such as combustion by-products, including black carbon from Siberian wildfires, into the Arctic region. The transport of soot aerosols with snow and ice cover into the Arctic can contribute to changes in the radiation balance of the Arctic ecosystem and the melting of sea ice, resulting in overall warming [14].
Climatic shifts in the Arctic cannot help but affect the biodiversity and diversity of all organisms that live on sea ice and the productivity of plankton populations in the Arctic Ocean. Arctic sea ice harbors unique marine ecosystems that support specialized groups of organisms such as bacteria and viruses.Available data indicate that the number and population structure of a key Arctic zooplankton species, Calanus glacialis, which accounts for up to 60% of the total zooplankton biomass, is closely linked to the state of sea ice in its habitat [13]. Under conditions of reduced and changing sea ice cover, significant changes have been observed in the population of this species, with a particularly strong correlation noted between the concentration of sea ice and the population dynamics.
Changes in sea levels are linked to trends in the Arctic region, according to models for the twenty-first century. There has been an overall increase in wave activity, including the formation of larger waves, in various parts of the Arctic. This is attributed to the increased length of wave generation, resulting from the expansion of open water areas, and a regional rise in atmospheric winds.At the same time, there has been an increase in the frequency of days with high winds and large waves in Russian Arctic regions. The highest levels of activity have been seen in the Kara Sea region. In contrast, there has been a decrease in wave activity in the Barents Sea area, which is linked to a decrease in wind speeds in that region.
Until 2006, all seas in the Russian Arctic experienced an increasing trend in wave height and wind speeds. However, since 2007, this pattern has reversed for some of the western seas, such as the Barents and Kara. At the same time, wind speed trends have reversed for all areas, although only the Barents and Kara showed a change in trends for the 90th percentile level [10].
During our theoretical analysis, we identified several factors that contribute to climate change. These include anthropogenic factors, such as human activity, solar activity and astrodynamic factors. Additionally, we identified resonances in the solar and climatic systems as another factor contributing to climate change. It is evident that the current changes in Arctic climate represent a serious issue that poses a threat not only to the ecology of the region but also to the global environment. If current trends continue, humanity may soon face the loss of many species of animals and plants. Furthermore, the very existence of Arctic glaciers may be at risk.
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